<table class="texreg" style="margin: 10px auto;border-collapse: collapse;border-spacing: 0px;caption-side: bottom;color: #000000;border-top: 2px solid #000000;">
<caption>Statistical models</caption>
<thead>
<tr>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 1</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 2</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 3</th>
<th style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Model 4</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr style="border-top: 1px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Mobilization for democracy</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.02<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Mobilization for autocracy</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.05<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.07<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.03<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">GDP per capita (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">GDP growth rate</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00<sup>**</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Gas and oil production (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Population (log)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.03<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.02</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.03)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Avg. years of education</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.02<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01<sup>*</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Ethnic fractionalization</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.05<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.11<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.03)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.09)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Intrastate conflict</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.05<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01<sup>**</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Ruling party dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.28<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.20<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.08<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Military dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.28<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.32<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.01<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.09<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Hereditary dimension</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.50<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.03</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.02</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.03)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.03)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.02)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Elections</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.01<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.00<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Coup attempt</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.03<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.04<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.04<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-0.02<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Human rights protection</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.08<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.03<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.00<sup>*</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.03<sup>***</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.00)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Democracy (lag)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.90<sup>***</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">(0.01)</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-top: 1px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">R<sup>2</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.76</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.90</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.98</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Adj. R<sup>2</sup></td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.76</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.90</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.98</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.11</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Sigma</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.14</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.09</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.04</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">nobs</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7031</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7031</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">7031</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">AIC</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-7668.51</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-13346.84</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-24590.38</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">BIC</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-7558.78</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-11844.91</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">-23081.60</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Log Likelihood</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">3850.26</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">6892.42</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">12515.19</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">within.r.squared</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.45</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">0.89</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr style="border-bottom: 2px solid #000000;">
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">Num. obs.</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">&nbsp;</td>
<td style="padding-left: 5px;padding-right: 5px;">6891</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td style="font-size: 0.8em;" colspan="5"><sup>***</sup>p &lt; 0.001; <sup>**</sup>p &lt; 0.01; <sup>*</sup>p &lt; 0.05</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
